Blue Jays betting trends: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. generating lift-off

The primary batch of MLB all-star voting results was revealed this week, which supplies us an ideal alternative to speak concerning the Toronto Blue Jays’ brightest star.

After all, we imply Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who owns a 1.048 OPS this month. In case your thoughts first drifted to Alejandro Kirk, don’t fear — we’ll point out him, too.

As Toronto enjoys Thursday’s off-day, try our Blue Jays betting tendencies, with notes on Vladdy, Captain Kirk and others.

Blue Jays betting tendencies

Guerrero Jr.’s floor ball phenomenon

Hitting the ball very exhausting is an efficient factor. As we all know, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does that quite a bit, evidenced by his 55.7% hard-hit fee (99th percentile).

However not all hard-hit balls are created equal. When Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went right into a little bit of a funk — by his requirements — in Might, his common exit velocity stayed sky-high.

His floor ball fee, in the meantime, climbed to a regarding stage. Try his month-to-month splits:

Month Floor-ball% Laborious-hit% wRC+
April 43.3% 53% 144
Might 56.4% 54% 95
June 49.2% 60% 193

As you see, Vladdy righted the ship in June. He’s cleared the multi-base prop in 12 of 21 video games, with eight dwelling runs in that span.

What’s particularly encouraging is that Guerrero isn’t lifting the ball into the air only for the sake of avoiding grounders — he’s crushing line drives. Regardless of the appreciable drop-off in GB%, his common launch angle in June (5º) is just marginally larger than his season common (4.8º), per Baseball Savant.

Once more, Guerrero’s offensive baseline is constantly buoyed by his propensity to mash. However now that he’s again to mashing at beneficial launch angles, he’s much more harmful.

The unluckiest Blue Jay

Matt Chapman slogged by his worst offensive output in 2021 (101 wRC+), and he’s been worse in that regard (94 wRC+) this season. However that’s not completely his fault.

Based mostly on the anticipated stats tallied at Baseball Savant, we are able to see that Chapman has been the unluckiest Blue Jay of the bunch.

Learn extra: The way to guess on the Blue Jays

His .304 wOBA is 50 factors behind what Savant expects the third baseman to have, primarily based on contact high quality. And his .382 slugging share is a whopping 105 factors behind the anticipated mark. Each of these disparities are the widest margins amongst 9 certified Toronto hitters.

Might was a very irritating month for the first-year Blue Jay:

Statistic Precise Anticipated Distinction
wOBA .264 .387 -.123
SLG .286 .511 -.225

If you happen to backed Chapman on the prop market, solely to observe a month stuffed with lineouts and warning-track what-ifs in agony, we’re sorry.

On the intense facet, Chapman has fared significantly better this month (130 wRC+). And his anticipated stats in June have been, properly, anticipated:

Statistic Precise Anticipated Distinction
wOBA .355 .353 +.002
SLG .464 .485 -.021

If Chapman’s true self in 2022 resembles his June output, with successful in 10 of 15 video games and 15 complete runs scored, bettors will have the ability to nab worth with him on a matchup-by-matchup foundation.

Do we’ve a fortunate Blue Jay? Anybody?

Sticking with Baseball Savant’s anticipated stats leaderboard, not one of the Blue Jays seem to have four-leaf clovers rising at their lockers or a rabbit’s foot below their helmets.

George Springer is the closest we come, with a .489 SLG in comparison with a .444 xSLG. He’s the one certified Toronto hitter with a slugging share that exceeds Baseball Savant’s expectation.

That’s encouraging for a group that ranks first in hard-hit fee (44.1%), first in anticipated batting common (.272) and second in common exit velocity (90.3). Statistically, there are not any flukes on this group.

Definitely not the 23-year-old Kirk, whose all-star voting lead amongst catchers is rattling close to 700,000 ballots. Kirk was sluggish out of the gate, however he’s been completely ablaze since mid-Might.

Video games 1-30 .253 .327 .308
Video games 31-59 .355 .460 .634

His .379 wOBA is 18th amongst all big-leaguers, and Baseball Savant has his xwOBA at .399. Think about that … for as glorious as Kirk has been, at the least one metric suggests he hasn’t hit his peak.

The late-game lowdown

Take into account the Blue Jays’ report within the first 5 innings (F5) in comparison with their report total:

  • F5 report: 29-27-13
  • Total report: 39-30

In attempting to determine what this implies, we first turned to the bullpen. Has the aid corps been stout sufficient to take the credit score right here? No, probably not.

Toronto’s bullpen entered Wednesday ranked twenty second in ERA (4.32), twenty fourth in fWAR (0.5) and twenty sixth in FIP (4.23), earlier than yielding one other 4 earned runs in three innings. Jordan Romano, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza have been a pleasant back-end trio, however the allotment as an entire doesn’t create a bonus.

As an alternative, the Blue Jays’ late-game edge comes from the batter’s field. From the sixth inning onward, Toronto typically swings its approach again into video games or finds a strategy to pad a lead.

Stats (sixth inning onward) Worth MLB rank
BA .258 2nd
wOBA .330 2nd
wRC+ 113 third

To utilize this information, bettors may contemplate inserting moneyline wagers on the total recreation extra steadily than on F5. Alternatively, of us inquisitive about reside betting might contemplate capitalizing on an early Jays’ deficit in hopes of a comeback within the ultimate frames.


Jordan Horrobin writes about sports activities betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which additionally owns Torstar, the Star’s mother or father firm. Observe him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content material was produced as a part of a partnership and due to this fact it could not meet the requirements of neutral or impartial journalism.

Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button