With Leafs’ long-term future unclear, a big move could be coming
Calle Jarnkrok is now the definable way forward for the Maple Leafs. He shares the stage with Morgan Rielly.
What is supposed by that, girls and gents, is that the newly signed Jarnkrok and the dependable, sturdy and proficient Rielly are the one two Leafs at present beneath contract in 2026, which helps to place into perspective the place Toronto’s NHL franchise is at this second.
Merely put, there isn’t a clear long-term image for the Leafs any extra.
All the important thing items that began being put in place when William Nylander was drafted in 2014 have now matured. That is not a younger group. The Leafs have picked within the first spherical of the NHL draft simply as soon as prior to now 4 years. There are not any blue chip kids ready within the wings, though unsigned collegian Matthew Knies is an interesting prospect.
Toronto’s greatest participant simply gained the Hart Trophy. His proper winger joined him on the NHL first all-star group. After subsequent season all the important thing roster components, aside from Rielly and Jarnkrok, could have two years or much less left on their contracts.
It goes with out saying that president Brendan Shanahan and his key lieutenants would have hoped the group would have achieved extra by now, particularly within the Stanley Cup playoffs. However that adjustments nothing about as we speak’s scenario, and definitely doesn’t imply this group can’t nonetheless make a deep imprint on the Leaf historical past guide.
Really, it already has. Final 12 months’s 115-point common season was essentially the most profitable in group historical past. Auston Matthews did issues no Leaf participant has ever finished earlier than.
Now, after some intriguing work by basic supervisor Kyle Dubas in free company, the group hasn’t materially improved, but it surely in all probability isn’t worse, both. That’s essentially the most Dubas may obtain for now given his roster, his wage cap limitations and the gamers obtainable.
Ahead Ilya Mikheyev, plucked from KHL obscurity in 2019, struck it wealthy in Vancouver and is gone. That’s a big loss. Goalie Jack Campbell is gone too, however the mixture of Campbell’s incapability to remain wholesome, his mid-season droop and the efficiency of the opposite 4 goalies the Leafs used final season left the membership with mediocre netminding for a lot of the 12 months, but nonetheless the group soared to new heights.
How important may Campbell even have been?
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It’s not unreasonable to imagine that Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, if wholesome, will have the ability to present Toronto with a minimum of the twenty second greatest group save share that Campbell et al delivered final season.
Jason Spezza has retired. The additions of Nicolas Aubé-Kubell from the roster of the Cup-winning Avalanche and Jarnkrok ought to fill the gaps left by Spezza and Mikheyev.
Past that, Ilya Lyubushkin, Colin Blackwell and the delicate Ondřej Kaše are gone, with ahead Adam Gaudette, defenceman Victor Mete and blueliner Jordie Benn coming in. Feels like a wash.
Whenever you add all of it up, the comings and the goings, and mix it along with the cap scenario and total contract image, one is left with an inescapable conclusion.
There’s one other shoe to drop right here. A relatively massive shoe.
You might have just one extra unfettered season with Matthews earlier than it’s a must to stare down the opportunity of having him stroll into free company in 2024. Calgary, with Johnny Gaudreau, simply skilled that catastrophe. The identical goes for Nylander, whereas each captain John Tavares and Mitch Marner will probably be free brokers in 2025. The Leafs gained’t be re-signing all of these gamers to main new offers.
The Leafs may use an improve on both Alex Kerfoot or Michael Bunting within the high six forwards. Justin Holl, one 12 months away from UFA standing, and Jake Muzzin, in all probability too banged-up to be definitely worth the $5.625 million he eats up on the payroll, look to be movable belongings. Rasmus Sandin is unsigned, however nonetheless an asset.
Add all of it up and it appears logical that someday between now and subsequent 12 months’s commerce deadline the Leafs will probably be utilizing some mixture of gamers and draft picks so as to add an influence ahead to the second most explosive offence in hockey.
That’s what Dubas’ work up to now this low season actually means. A superb common season group is not any worse, and it’s positioned to make a big-time addition, presumably as a short-term rental, someday within the subsequent seven months.
Who will that participant be? Properly, simply look towards all of the proficient forwards who’re at present scheduled to grow to be unrestricted free brokers subsequent summer time.
That record begins with Chicago famous person Patrick Kane. It additionally consists of his teammate Jonathan Toews. There’s additionally Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O’Reilly, Sean Monahan, Nathan MacKinnon, Dylan Larkin, Jonathan Huberdeau, J.T. Miller and Bo Horvat. And others.
A few of the names on that group will keep put. Vancouver gained’t let Horvat stroll. MacKinnon will stay in Denver. Larkin, the captain of the Pink Wings, appears prone to stay in Detroit, besides he’s somewhat older than the younger group Steve Yzerman is placing collectively. Huberdeau equally appears very a lot a part of the core in Florida and the Panthers are a divisional rival. However that group already suffered this low season by being in cap purgatory and should have to re-evaluate throughout subsequent season.
Miller’s future in Vancouver appears very dicey. So put him on the high of the watch record alongside Kane.
There are a lot of variables right here, and that is nonetheless a Leaf group that hasn’t been capable of get out of the primary spherical of the playoffs. However that solely provides to the sense of urgency to provide this explicit group the very best likelihood to be particular earlier than its time is up.
It’s not possible to take a look at the place the Leafs had been final season, and the place the general group panorama sits with its stars and their contracts, and never get the sensation one thing fairly massive goes to occur.
