Here’s how to find value on a Chargers season win total
Firing off NFL win totals has grow to be a preferred summer time custom for sports activities bettors. It is now carved out its personal little season to fill the post-draft void from Could-September. The months spent scouring knowledge on every little thing from offseason roster additions to journey schedules are a pleasant lead-in to the 18 weeks of continuous motion that awaits us.
Whether or not it is season win totals or a Sunday afternoon sport, bettors discover themselves on the identical vacation spot. Attempting to make sure they’re on the precise facet of the quantity. By now, the obtainable numbers on win totals are fairly set, having been smashed, twisted and bent into form by the sharpest teams available in the market for months. However as a lot as a stable quantity could make it difficult to seek out an edge, its accuracy traditionally falls quick. As extra sportsbooks provide alternate win totals, bettors can seize extra worth by concentrating on their quantity at plus odds.
To illustrate you’re concentrating on a crew below 8.5 wins. You probably would not guess the below until seven and even six wins is a sensible risk. Alternate win totals provide the choice to money in at higher odds with the decrease quantity. Here are three of my favorite alternative win totals at BetMGM, with odds starting from +180 to as excessive as +400. Let’ begin with essentially the most probably worthwhile possibility first.
Chargers over 12.5 wins (+400)
Justin Herbert’s 5,000-yard sophomore season proved the Chargers have the precise coach within the uber-aggressive and analytically pushed Brandon Staley to pair with their franchise quarterback. After watching their L.A. roommates win the Tremendous Bowl of their dwelling stadium, the Chargers adopted the Rams’ all-in mentality this offseason. Placing gold in free company with defensive stars like Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson offers the protection a uncommon mixture of a loaded secondary behind a feared move rush.
The Chargers examine all of the containers as Tremendous Bowl contenders. Within the first yr of the 17-game format, six of eight division winners received not less than 12 video games. If Herbert goes to have the ability to overthrow Patrick Mahomes in essentially the most aggressive division in soccer, I’m going to guess it takes not less than 13 wins. So as an alternative of betting the Chargers to win the AFC West at +250, lock up an extra 60% return with this alternate win whole.
Washington Commanders below 6.5 wins (+180)
They are saying the third time’s the attraction. Carson Wentz heads to Washington with hopes of salvaging his profession together with his third crew in as a few years. Wentz gives an improve on the place from final yr, however massive questions stay on whether or not it is sufficient to maximise the potential of wideouts Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Per Steven Ruiz of the Ringer, Wentz ranked twenty eighth in EPA on straight drop-backs in 2021, with solely a 40% success price. As well as, the identical Jaguars protection that chased Carson out of Indianapolis awaits him in Week 1, and the road is transferring towards Jacksonville.
The rationale it is transferring is my largest concern with the Commanders this season. Washington can be with out DE Chase Younger for the primary 4 video games. The Commanders’ secondary ranked thirty second in drop-back EPA allowed on third downs and twenty ninth in opponent completion share for of throws 10-plus yards down the sector.
The season’s first two weeks have been presupposed to be a mushy opening with Jacksonville and Detroit. Nonetheless, Washington is the favourite in solely 4 of its remaining 15 video games, so a sluggish begin with out Younger will make this +180 wager a sensible funding.
Chicago Bears below 3.5 wins (+375 )
There aren’t many groups you may guess with confidence to lose not less than 14 video games, nevertheless it’s laborious to see how this Bears crew beats anyone with this roster. Chicago’s offensive line had the very best adjusted sack price within the league final season. On the few performs the place Fields can keep upright this season, he can be throwing to the second-lowest rated group of receivers. Darnell Mooney is the Bears’ solely beginning wideout with a PFF rating inside the highest 75. If that is not unhealthy sufficient, solely two groups venture to have a worse secondary. So it is unlikely the protection can maintain them in video games, contemplating the offensive ineptitude will pressure them to function in means too many quick fields.
The Bears can be favorites Week 3 towards Houston, however every little thing else the remainder of the best way can be an uphill battle. At +375, I’ll take a shot that the implied odds of 21% are set too low for Chicago’s rock-bottom roster.
Stats offered by rbsdm.com, pff.com, clevanalytics.com, sharpfootballanalysis.com.
