KINSELLA: Will Trudeau try to cement legacy with election win in fall?

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Be afraid.

Be very afraid.

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As a result of — truthfully, honestly — election discuss is beginning up once more in Ottawa. As in, a federal election. As in, commencing within the month of November.

We all know, we all know. It is not sensible. Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh did their Axis of Weasels deal in a smoke-free backroom, and agreed no election for an additional three years, give or take.

So, there’s no want for an election. And nobody needs an election. However however all that, critical individuals at the moment are having critical talks about one.

Cease banging your head in opposition to the wall. Get off that ledge. When you concentrate on it, it form of is smart.

Right here’s ten the reason why.

1. Pierre Poilievre’s weaknesses. The Liberal and NDP conflict rooms consider the Ottawa-area Conservative MP goes to win his occasion’s management contest. So that they’ve been busily accumulating materials to make use of in opposition to Poilievre — his fondness for whackadoodle WEF conspiracy theories, his enthusiasm for bizarro Bitcoin buffoonery, his slippery stance on abortion and social points, his enduring dislikability. And the Grits and Dippers need to use that materials earlier than it will get stale as a result of…

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2. …Poilievre has one massive energy: the economic system. He’s been his occasion’s finance critic, and he’s received some Bay Road cred. Extra worrying, for the Liberals, is that Poilievre is beginning to seem like a prophet on the financial entrance: his criticisms of central bankers might have been proper, and his laser-like deal with Trudeau’s failings preventing inflation bode nicely for Staff Blue. Trudeau doesn’t need inflation/recession to change into the poll query. As a result of then he’ll lose.

3. The economic system is heading into the ditch. Aside from jobs, each key financial indicator is presently wanting grim — and jobs will too, quickly sufficient, with inflation worse than it has been for 4 many years. Trudeau and Co. have to get forward of what stands out as the worst financial downturn for the reason that 2008-2009 world financial disaster.

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4. Apart from: we might have slipped right into a recession already. On Thursday, England’s central financial institution jacked rates of interest by an astonishing 1.75% — the largest price improve in a few years. Whereas such price will increase squeeze out inflation, they all the time threat tipping Western economies into recession. Which many economists quietly counsel we could also be in already. Trudeau is aware of that recession isn’t conducive to re-election.

5. Canadians are grumpy and getting grumpier. Successive opinion polls present a rising consensus that the nation is on the flawed observe — and that the Trudeau Liberals are wholly incapable of governing. The continued chaos at airports, plus extra chaos at passport and immigration places of work, have made the Grits seem like actually dangerous managers. They should change the channel, and elections are glorious channel-changers.

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6. COVID isn’t going away and can quickly worsen. With masking deserted by many, cooler fall temperatures will see a resurgence of colds and flus — in addition to but extra COVID-19 waves. For Trudeau, nonetheless, a COVID surge is arguably excellent news: it would give him the proper atmosphere to argue that the Tories are a seething nest of COVID-denying anti-vax conspiracy nuts. Which he’ll.

7. Instability is Trudeau’s pal. Putin’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine; Trumpist Republicans seizing energy within the U.S. midterms; a return of the “freedom” convoy protests. All of these issues, and extra, counsel instability for Center Canada and the world — and due to this fact assist Trudeau. Don’t change horses mid-stream, Trudeau will say — and significantly when the world goes to Hell in a handbasket. Blended metaphor it might be, however it might simply work, too.

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8. Trudeau himself. More and more, governing bores him — witness, as an example, his seemingly endless vacationeering. However one factor Trudeau loves, and does nicely, is electioneering. He by no means, ever steps again from a battle. And he thinks he can beat Poilievre. So do Liberals.

9. Minority governments are all the time planning for elections: they should. As my Solar colleague Brian Lilley has famous on my Kinsellacast podcast, the Grits can be loopy to not be preparing. Apart from, they’re united — and the Conservatives are nonetheless within the midst of the nastiest, most-divisive, management race ever. Don’t give them time to heal and reunite.

10. And eventually: an election win offers Justin Trudeau what he covets most — a legacy. He might not eke out one other majority, however no Prime Minister has gained 4 elections in a row since Sir John A. Macdonald.

Is an election probably? Perhaps not. Does Justin Trudeau concern one? Positively not.

However the remainder of us must be afraid.

Very afraid.