Should your MLB team gut its farm system for Juan Soto? The Miguel Cabrera trade provides some perspective

The Juan Soto scenario is numerous issues, however it’s not solely unprecedented.

Gamers with Soto’s age and resume change into obtainable for a commerce possibly as soon as in a technology, and the value it takes to pry the outfielder from the Washington Nationals is prone to mirror that. The Nationals reportedly want four or five “youngsters” (learn: prospects or MLB gamers with low service time), and that is going to provide numerous groups pause.

Ought to it? Nicely, that is not straightforward. Precisely judging a winner from any Soto commerce the second it is made is borderline unimaginable, as a result of we actually do not know what the gamers headed to D.C. will change into, and that is why it is scary buying and selling away a prime 100 prospect. He may change into one other Juan Soto.

Nonetheless, it could be attainable to get some perspective from possibly the closest factor we now have to a precedent for Soto: A participant who was an NL East star and considered one of MLB’s finest hitters at a younger age, with a World Collection ring gained at 20 years previous, and was traded for a bunch of prospects whose careers we now have since seen.

We’re speaking about Miguel Cabrera, whom the then-Florida Marlins judged to be too costly to maintain long-term and traded to the Detroit Tigers in 2007 on the age of 24, one 12 months older than Soto is now. Cabrera would go on to have a Corridor of Fame profession in Detroit, hitting .309/.385/.522 with 368 homers, seven All-Star nods, 5 Silver Sluggers, 4 batting titles and two MVP awards throughout 15 seasons coming into Thursday.

By Baseball Reference’s model of wins above alternative (bWAR), he has been value 68.7 wins for Detroit.

There are clearly variations between 2022 Soto and 2007 Cabrera, however their commerce values should not be too far off. Just like the Nationals, the Marlins needed a boatload of prospects for his or her younger star and finally obtained it from the Tigers, who rotated and gave Cabrera the extension the Marlins had been attempting to keep away from.

The Marlins requested loads of different groups as properly, so let’s take a look at what every workforce reportedly may have paid for Cabrera, and whether or not or not they’d remorse making that commerce now with the good thing about hindsight we’re lacking when speaking about Soto.

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We’ll begin with the commerce that really occurred. All prospect rankings come from Baseball America’s pre-2008 Prime 100 except in any other case famous.

Detroit Tigers

The factor you must understand about this package deal is many individuals thought it was monstrous on the time. The Tigers needed their star hitter and paid dearly for him, giving up two prime 20 prospects in Maybin and Miller, plus 4 different dwell our bodies.

Maybin would have a decent sufficient profession as a beginning middle fielder with a profession 92 OPS+ (principally, his OPS was eight p.c worse than league common when adjusted for park and 12 months), however by no means made an All-Star workforce. Miller by no means discovered the success envisioned for him as a beginning pitcher, however his second act as a reliever was the most effective factor anybody on this group did.

Ought to the Tigers have performed this? God, sure.

Los Angeles Angels

No workforce popped up extra in commerce hypothesis for Cabrera than the Angels, who finally balked on the above package deal.

It is laborious to disclaim Kendrick finally turned the participant many believed he might be, a high-contact second baseman that would match into the highest of any lineup. He solely made one All-Star workforce, however he ranks eleventh all-time on the Angels in bWAR.

Santana discovered loads of success as properly, throwing 2,486.2 innings with a 101 ERA+, whereas Mathis lasted 17 years within the huge leagues as largely a back-up catcher. Tragically, Adenhart died in 2009 in a collision with a drunk driver.

Ought to the Angels have performed this? In all probability. Sure, their two greatest names turned out fantastic, however think about Cabrera and Mike Trout in the identical lineup, then get again to me.

Chicago White Sox

The necessary title right here is Gonzalez, who had an excellent profession … for groups that weren’t the White Sox. Chicago ended up buying and selling him and Sweeney to the Oakland Athletics in 2008 for one 12 months of Nick Swisher.

Gonzalez discovered success with Oakland and the Washington Nationals, making two All-Star groups and ending third in Cy Younger voting in 2012. Cabrera gained AL MVP that 12 months.

Ought to the White Sox have performed this? Clearly sure, but it surely seems like they had been outbid.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The overall lesson of this listing is to not hug your prospects too intently, however there’s an exception to each rule, and his title is Clayton Kershaw.

We do not even really want to listing off what Kershaw has performed, the truth that he began an All-Star sport this 12 months speaks for itself. Kemp additionally got here a Ryan Braun in need of an MVP award in 2011 and hung round within the majors for 15 years, whereas Loney discovered somewhat success as a high-contact, low-power first baseman.

Ought to the Dodgers have performed this? They’re solely workforce right here through which the reply is emphatically no.

Boston Pink Sox

Buchholz actually appeared like he was going to be MLB’s subsequent ace at one level. He did have some good years and threw a no-hitter in his second profession begin however the damage gods weren’t sort to him. The higher participant on this package deal wound up being Ellsbury, who, like Kemp, got here up simply in need of an MVP award in 2011.

Ought to the Pink Sox have performed this? Sure, however they’ve two extra World Collection rings than the Tigers since this went down.

Cleveland Guardians

Miller is the uncommon prime prospect to not even see the majors, as a number of arm surgical procedures in 2009 left him ineffective. Cabrera turned out moderately properly, although “properly” on this case means a solid-hitting shortstop who made two All-Star groups then launched into a journeyman profession.

Ought to the Guardians have performed this? Sure, as a result of pitching prospects will break your coronary heart.

Different gamers MLB groups refused to incorporate

There have been a couple of groups usually fascinated by Cabrera, however the central items the Marlins demanded turned out to be non-starters. Here they are.

• New York Yankees: Certainly one of Phil Hughes (No. 4 pre-2007), Joba Chamberlain (No. 3) or Ian Kennedy (No. 45)

• St. Louis Cardinals: Colby Rasmus (No. 5)

• San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum (No. 11 pre-2007)

Once more, pitching prospects will break your coronary heart, however they could additionally win two Cy Younger Awards and three World Collection rings earlier than doing it.

So these are your MLB Ghosts of Christmas Previous. Take a look at all these prime 100 rankings, then have a look at this list of Soto mock trades, then ask your self, are these costs actually that steep