Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks Game 1: McClanahan should flash elite strikeout stuff
Within the first recreation of the Blue Jays and Rays’ twin invoice at Rogers Centre, neither starter is prone to make issues straightforward on their respective opponents.
The pregame narrative: Good luck racking up the hits on Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan. Each starters are on the shortlist for the present AL Cy Younger odds, which may result in one other low-scoring matchup between these groups.
Take a look at our Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks for July 2.
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks overview
- Shane McClanahan over 7.5 strikeouts (-105)
- George Springer over 0.5 runs (+117)
- Randy Arozarena beneath 0.5 hits (+125)
Rays vs. Blue Jays picks
Greatest wager: Shane McClanahan over 7.5 strikeouts (-105)
Seeing this excessive of a line on a strikeout prop is way from best, nevertheless it’s an indication of respect for a way efficient McClanahan has been at stymying big-league lineups all yr.
Three robust offspeed pitches complement the younger lefty’s 97-mph fastball, leading to 123 strikeouts over simply 91.1 innings (12.12 Okay/9 price, second in MLB). He has collected seven or extra Ks in 14 of 15 begins, and he cleared this line in 4 of 5 outings in June.
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NorthStar’s preliminary line for McClanahan was over/beneath 6.5 Ks, provided at -150. We really feel the diminished juice is value it on this elevated line.
One in every of McClanahan’s most spectacular — and inspiring — traits is that any of his 4 choices can be utilized as an out pitch.
Excessive-90s fastball? Certain. A changeup with 2.5 inches extra of horizontal run than common? Sounds good. His curveball and slider come out properly, too.
Enjoying off the heavy fastball, all three of McClanahan’s offspeed pitches have a whiff price of 33.1% or higher, exceeding the big-league common of 25.5%, per Baseball Savant.
The Blue Jays struck out 14 instances over 14.1 innings towards McClanahan final yr, again when the then-rookie was nonetheless determining his optimum pitch combine. Now that he’s minimize down on slider utilization and ramped up his curveball/changeup quantity, he’s been a lot more durable to hit.
Key stat: McClanahan has a 35.1% called-plus-swinging-strike price (CSW), which leads the majors.
Fast picks
Springer over 0.5 runs (+117): We’ll not often flip our nostril up at a plus-money value for Springer to attain a run. Toronto’s leadoff man has crossed the plate in 5 of his previous six video games, with a team-leading 46 runs general.
The context right here is that McClanahan (AL-best 1.77 ERA) is tough to attain on. However at the least of their transient historical past towards one another, Springer has executed fairly properly: 2-for-4, residence run, two walks.
Arozarena beneath 0.5 hits (+125): 2021’s AL Rookie of the Yr has cooled off since mid-June, going hitless in eight of his previous 14 video games. He has only a .485 OPS in that span, a microcosm of some regarding batted ball metrics general.
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The fitting-handed hitter loses 51 factors on his batting common when he faces righties (.255 vs. RHP, .296 vs. LHP), which supplies us another reason to fade him towards Gausman.
Odds as of 10:51 a.m. ET on 07/02/2022.
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