P.E.I.’s unemployment rate hits record low

CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. — P.E.I.’s unemployment price sank to 4.9 per cent in June, the bottom price recorded since Statistics Canada started amassing nationwide unemployment information.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey for June discovered the province’s unemployment price dropped 2.7 share factors from Could.

The unemployment price isn’t solely the bottom seen within the province because the begin of the COVID-19 pandemic however is much under any price the province has seen since 1976, which is when Statistics Canada started amassing the information.

Previous to June, the bottom unemployment price recorded within the province was 7.7 per cent. This stage was reached 3 times within the final 43 years – in December of 2021, October of 2018 and December of 1976.

The province’s economic system added 1,600 jobs in June, the second consecutive month of development. The expansion in jobs was unfold throughout a number of industries however was most pronounced amongst staff within the enterprise, constructing and different help companies, wholesale and retail, and lodging and meals companies sectors.

Throughout Canada, 43,000 fewer staff had been employed in June in comparison with Could. Paradoxically, the unemployment price additionally fell by 0.2 share factors in June to 4.9 per cent.

The dip in P.E.I.’s unemployment price equally occurred even because the province’s labour pressure shrank barely from 92,800 staff in Could to 91,700 staff in June.

“It is nice to see a low unemployment price, but it surely does converse to the necessity for increasingly staff on this province.”

Robert Godfrey

The province’s labour pressure participation price dropped barely to 65.9 per cent in June in comparison with 66.9 per cent in Could.

General ladies aged 25 or older had a decrease unemployment price in June (3.2 per cent) than males (5.3 per cent).

Labour scarcity and wage pressures

Robert Godfrey, CEO of the Higher Charlottetown Space Chamber of Commerce, mentioned the information is sweet for P.E.I.’s economic system total. However he additionally mentioned the numbers spotlight the province’s ongoing labour shortages throughout many sectors.

“It is nice to see a low unemployment price, but it surely does converse to the necessity for increasingly staff on this province,” Godfrey mentioned.

“It speaks for the demand for labour. And individuals are clearly rising to that problem, which is nice information. However the job emptiness price stays.”

Godfrey mentioned the low unemployment numbers highlighted the necessity for the province to proceed attracting extra immigration.

UPEI economist Jim Sentance mentioned the traditionally low unemployment price may place upward strain on wages for Island staff.

The province’s workforce is coping with the best inflation charges within the nation, which has meant escalating prices for fuels, meals and housing.

“It is fairly stark proof that employers cannot simply look ahead to individuals to come back again to the work pressure – they’re already there,” Sentance instructed SaltWire in a July 8 e-mail.

“Now we have one of many highest participation charges within the nation. They are going to must compete for staff.”

Getting older workforce

Fred Bergman, a senior coverage analyst with the Atlantic Provinces Financial Council, mentioned one other issue that explains the province’s traditionally low unemployment price is the province’s growing older workforce.

Bergman mentioned P.E.I.’s economic system had already recovered from the pandemic job losses in 2021.

“Because the inhabitants ages … what occurs is individuals depart the labour pressure after which you have got a a lot tighter labour market and decrease unemployment,” Bergman mentioned.

“So, if there’s anyone on the market that is trying to work, you’ve got acquired a million job vacancies in Canada and three,000 job vacancies in P.E.I. that have to be crammed. And till you get there and get these crammed, you are going to have very, very low unemployment charges.”

However whereas a traditionally low stage of unemployment could also be music to the ears of P.E.I.’s political leaders, there might be bother brewing.

On July 7, a report by RBC predicted rising meals and vitality prices, coupled with rising rates of interest, may push the Canadian economic system right into a “average” recession in 2023.

Bergman mentioned it’s nonetheless too early to inform if both a cooling economic system or perhaps a recession is on the way in which. However he mentioned P.E.I.’s current inhabitants development may function a buffer towards uneven financial waters within the months forward.

“P.E.I., like most of the Atlantic provinces, tends to have a bigger public sector. P.E.I. additionally has very, very robust inhabitants development. And if that inhabitants development continues, P.E.I. may simply keep away from a recession,” Bergman mentioned.

“When you’ve got optimistic inhabitants development, you want one thing actually adverse to show that right into a recession.”