Question in Quebec election all about who will come second, not first, polls suggest

With the Coalition Avenir Quebec social gathering dominating the polls at first of the provincial election marketing campaign, essentially the most urgent query of the race is probably not who wins, however who is available in second.

And with 5 weeks to go earlier than Quebecers vote on Oct. 3, specialists say a transparent challenger to CAQ Chief Francois Legault has but to emerge.

Whereas Legault’s social gathering is the clear chief within the polls – with assist greater than double that of its closest adversary – the battle for second is a a lot tighter race. Because the marketing campaign began Sunday, there have been 4 events polling between 10 and 20 per cent, together with the Quebec Liberal Get together, Quebec solidaire, the Conservative Get together of Quebec and the Parti Quebecois.

“It’s actually a battle to emerge from this encampment by 4 events which might be in a totally marginal place,” stated Andre Lamoureux, a political science professor at Universite du Quebec a Montreal.

All 4 opposition events, Lamoureux stated in an interview Monday, are going through challenges that may make it arduous for them to interrupt via.

The CAQ authorities has made strikes over the previous 4 years which have happy its nationalist, French-speaking base, Lamoureux stated.

These embrace harder language legal guidelines, a secularism regulation that limits spiritual symbols in some branches of the civil service, and calls for of Ottawa for higher management over immigration.

Because of this, Lamoureux says, they’ve “pulled the rug out from below the toes” of the once-dominant PQ, which now sits in fifth place in most polls.

The Quebec Liberal Get together, regardless of coming in second in most surveys, has largely misplaced the francophone vote – one thing Lamoureux attributes to the social gathering’s choice to ‘minimize itself off from the (Quebec) nation” because of its opposition to the CAQ’s language and secularism legal guidelines.

The Conservative Get together of Quebec, which was not an element within the 2018 election, has been gaining recognition within the Quebec Metropolis space however may very well be restricted by what Lamoureux describes as “nearly libertarian” guarantees to dismantle Quebec’s public daycare system, to more and more privatize well being care and to oppose all COVID-19 restrictions.

Danielle Pilette, an affiliate professor of technique, social duty and atmosphere at Universite du Quebec a Montreal, says the race for official Opposition might be between the Quebec Liberal Get together and Quebec solidaire, a left-wing sovereigntist social gathering.

With a view to stand out, a celebration must compellingly deal with questions associated to value of dwelling, she stated in an interview Monday.

“The proposals which would be the most examined are these which suggest tax catch-ups for the less-favoured lessons, then catch-up or compensation in relation to the price of housing and the price of transport,” she stated.

These points, Pilette added, particularly these pertaining to housing, are ones Quebec solidaire is well-prepared to handle. She stated the social gathering might have room to develop in working-class neighbourhoods in Montreal and different city centres, a few of which have just lately elected progressive mayors.

She stated issues might be troublesome for Liberal Chief Dominique Anglade, who’s going through a problem from small, pro-anglophone events in Montreal, including that the chief can be fighting the legacy of earlier Liberal governments that have been dogged by ethics scandals and unpopular insurance policies. Nevertheless, she stated, the social gathering – aside from QS – is the one different candidate for Opposition “by default” as a result of the others don’t have a large sufficient base.

Eric Belanger, a political science professor at McGill College, says identification points – significantly safety of the French language – and the atmosphere are the matters that may enable a challenger to realize consideration.

Like Pilette, he says Quebec solidaire is robust on these points and likewise represents the clearest various to Legault’s centre-right social gathering, though he notes that the social gathering’s base is made up of younger individuals – a demographic that doesn’t at all times vote.

The outcomes on election day may very well be tighter than the polls point out, Belanger stated. Quebec’s first-past-the put up system tends to introduce “disproportionality” that’s exacerbated in ridings with three- or four-way races, he added.

Whereas he expects Legault’s social gathering to win, he says the CAQ’s majority could also be smaller than polls counsel. Some voters who’re against Legault might determine to vote strategically and throw their assist behind the chief they assume is greatest positioned to problem him, he added.

Lamoureux, for his half, says Quebec solidaire has a ceiling of about 15 per cent of votes because of its “communitarian and really racialist” left-wing insurance policies, similar to its insistence on the existence of systemic racism _ an idea that the CAQ denies exists in Quebec.

He says Quebec may very well be heading towards an election end result the province hasn’t seen in additional than 100 years: the place no opposition social gathering receives greater than 20 per cent of the vote. The opposition, Lamoureux added, might want to hope for robust performances within the leaders debates to have any hope of shifting the needle.

This report by The Canadian Press was first printed Aug. 30, 2022.