GOLDSTEIN: Trudeau’s carbon tax cheques will make most of us poorer

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There’s excellent news and dangerous information about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax for residents of the 4 provinces the place it applies — Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

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The excellent news is that beginning July 15 and 4 occasions yearly after that, people and households residing in these provinces are going to obtain tax-free cheques, or direct deposit funds if they like, from the Trudeau authorities underneath its Local weather Motion Incentive Fee Plan.

Beforehand the rebates had been a refundable tax credit score, claimed on revenue tax returns.

The dangerous information is that, in keeping with Yves Giroux, Parliament’s unbiased, non-partisan finances officer, most individuals receiving these cheques (60%), can pay much more in annual carbon taxes than they get again in carbon tax funds, and can achieve this yearly as much as 2030, not less than.

In 2024, Giroux says, 80% of Ontario households will likely be paying extra in carbon taxes than they obtain in rebate cheques, with the identical factor taking place in Alberta in 2028.

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The Trudeau authorities, in contrast, continues to assert 80% of households paying the carbon tax will likely be higher off financially.

The distinction within the competing claims is dramatic.

The Trudeau authorities claims the common family in Ontario this yr will obtain $134 extra in carbon tax cheques than it pays in carbon taxes. Giroux says it can really get $360 much less.

For Alberta, the feds declare a $338 profit, Giroux a $671 price.

For Saskatchewan, the feds declare a $319 profit, Giroux a $390 price.

For Manitoba, the feds declare a $229 profit, Giroux a $299 price.

When Trudeau’s carbon tax, now $50 per tonne of greenhouse gasoline emissions, reaches $170 per tonne in 2030, Giroux estimates the common internet price of the tax per family in Ontario will likely be $1,461 yearly, $2,282 in Alberta, $1,464 in Saskatchewan and $1,145 in Manitoba.

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Giroux’s calculations differ from the federal government’s as a result of the feds solely calculate the direct monetary impression of the carbon tax — the quantity paid by taxpayers versus the quantity the federal government returns in rebates.

Giroux says these figures are correct however they’re incomplete as a result of they don’t embrace the added price of the financial injury brought on by the carbon tax.

He calculates Trudeau’s carbon tax will scale back Canada’s actual GDP progress this yr by 0.4% and by 1.3% in 2030.

Complete labour revenue will likely be minimize by 0.5% this yr and by 2.3% in 2030.

Funding revenue will decline by 2.6% this yr and by 3.6% in 2030, with employees in fossil-fuel intensive industries resembling utilities, transportation and the oil and gasoline sector hardest hit.

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Giroux’s calculations don’t consider the price of environmental injury with out Trudeau’s carbon tax however as he lately advised the Nationwide Put up:

“To anticipate these advantages to be realized earlier than 2030-2031 is … wildly optimistic. There’s … a price of doing nothing, however this price could be very troublesome to evaluate.”

My view is that the Trudeau authorities’s carbon tax has all the time been a Malicious program or, in case you want, an elaborate bait-and-switch scheme, constructed on the logical fallacy that paying a brand new tax will make most individuals richer.

Trudeau clearly hopes that when individuals residing within the 4 provinces the place his carbon tax applies begin receiving quarterly cheques in July — with an preliminary double fee to cowl the January to June interval this yr — they’ll overlook that the majority of them will likely be paying extra in carbon taxes than they’ll get in rebates.

lgoldstein@postmedia.com