François Legault in enviable position as Quebec election campaign approaches

François Legault’s win within the 2018 provincial election marked the beginning of a brand new period in Quebec politics, after practically 50 years of federalist-versus-separatist two-party rule.

4 years later, Legault and his Coalition Avenir Québec are firmly in management, with polls suggesting he’ll cruise to a second majority victory on Oct. 3.

Consultants provide quite a few causes to elucidate Legault’s runaway lead, together with his reputation amongst francophones, the fragmentation of the opposition and the sustained visibility he obtained through the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most polls present Legault with assist within the mid-40 per cent vary — greater than double that of his closest adversary, the Liberals. Days forward of Sunday’s marketing campaign launch, poll-aggregator web site QC125.com pegged the chance of Legault’s celebration successful a majority authorities at greater than 99 per cent.

Valerie-Anne Maheo, an assistant professor of political science at Université Laval, mentioned the election comes after greater than two years of a pandemic throughout which Legault was “omnipresent.”

“He was there on daily basis giving information conferences; we noticed him on a regular basis, and he ruled by decree due to the well being emergency,” she mentioned in a current telephone interview. Opposition events — most of which had new leaders –struggled for visibility as a result of debate within the legislature on most points concerning the pandemic was suspended, she added.

However Legault’s rise and continued power can’t be solely attributed to circumstance, she mentioned.

The outgoing Quebec premier, Maheo mentioned, has been capable of capitalize on a brand new political panorama that started shifting even earlier than his celebration was shaped in 2011. For practically 50 years, Quebec politics was outlined by two competing visions: sovereignty, helmed by the Parti Québécois, and federalism, championed by the Liberal Celebration of Quebec.

However as curiosity in sovereignty has waned, a extra conventional right-left political divide has emerged. That shift, she mentioned, has led to the normal events dropping floor in favour of the centre-right CAQ and — to a lesser diploma — left-leaning Québec solidaire.

Legault’s nationalist strategy, which consists of asserting Quebec’s political sovereignty whereas ruling out an independence referendum, seems to have received over a big chunk of the normal Parti Quebecois base, Maheo mentioned. The CAQ has additionally efficiently unseated the Liberals because the celebration seen because the strongest supervisor of the financial system, she mentioned.

Because of this, the Liberals and PQ are struggling to redefine themselves below the brand new management of Dominique Anglade and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, respectively.

“Legault was very expert as a result of he managed to short-circuit this debate between sovereignty and federalism,” Maheo mentioned. “He mentioned, `I’m not involved with that, I’m going to defend the pursuits of Quebec, it doesn’t matter what the shape.”’

Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Examine of Canada, says Legault stands to profit from a fragmented political panorama that has 4 opposition events polling between 10 and 20 per cent. Most opposition events, he mentioned, look like in “defensive mode,” together with a Liberal celebration that’s dealing with backlash from its conventional anglophone base over a perceived failure to defend the neighborhood towards Invoice 96, Quebec’s language legislation reform.

The Conservative Celebration of Quebec, which has emerged from obscurity below the management of former radio character Eric Duhaime, seems to be the one opposition celebration on the rise, Beland mentioned. But it surely’s unclear, he added, whether or not the Conservatives’ new-found assist across the Quebec Metropolis space will translate into seats.

Beland famous that whereas Legault’s approval rankings might have dipped from the peak of the pandemic, the premier stays comparatively unscathed by controversies — together with the deaths of hundreds of long-term care residents through the first wave of the pandemic, the adoption of the language reform, and the passing of Invoice 21, which bans some civil servants from sporting spiritual symbols to work.

These two legal guidelines pre-emptively invoke the however clause of the Canadian Constitution of Rights and Freedoms to defend them from authorized challenges, main critics to accuse Legault of trampling linguistic and spiritual minority rights.

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The important thing to Legault’s resilience, Béland mentioned, lies in his sturdy assist amongst his principally rural francophone base — and in addition inside his personal caucus. The opposition to the language and secularism legal guidelines, Beland famous, is concentrated in Montreal, the place the CAQ received solely two seats in 2018 and the place the celebration doesn’t must win on Oct. 3 to safe a second majority.

Legault’s unquestioned management in his personal celebration, Beland mentioned, allowed him to get away with flip-flopping at instances, together with cancelling a short-lived plan to tax individuals who remained unvaccinated towards COVID-19.

“He has some wiggle room to alter course when vital, when he sees that there’s a backlash taking place,” he mentioned.

Each Béland and Maheo mentioned that whereas Legault is in a powerful place forward of the vote, he has his weaknesses.

Béland says {that a} new wave of the pandemic or worsening inflation may put strain on the CAQ chief. As effectively, not one of the opposition celebration leaders have participated in a leaders debate earlier than, which means one in every of them may emerge as a star and seize Quebecers’ assist on both problem, he mentioned.

Maheo mentioned Legault through the marketing campaign will face powerful questions on immigration and on the atmosphere. The celebration, she mentioned, isn’t seen as an environmental chief and has been reluctant to boost immigration targets regardless of persistent labour shortages.

There’s additionally the potential of a significant stumble, though Maheo notes that Legault’s sturdy lead makes that appear much less possible.

“He’s so certain of successful that he can virtually let himself get away with making half guarantees and never get too concerned within the discussions within the debates,” Maheo mentioned.

Because the legislature broke for the summer time, Legault’s celebration had 76 seats, whereas the Quebec Liberals had 27, Québec solidaire had 10 and the Parti Québécois had seven. The Conservative Celebration of Quebec held one seat and there have been 4 Independents.