COMMENTARY: Philippines election: Back to the future

Henry Srebrnik is a professor of political science on the College of Prince Edward Island.

Waves appear to maneuver by way of an ocean, but the water at all times returns to its relaxation place, because the particles actually journey in circles. So it’s a kind of optical phantasm. That is an apt metaphor for politics within the Philippines, now {that a} Marcos is again in energy.

Filipinos are a Malay individuals who have a political tradition distinctive to southeast Asia. Apart from within the southern island of Mindanao, the place there’s a Muslim inhabitants, the overwhelming majority are Roman Catholics.

Spanish colonial rule within the Philippines, the nation named for King Philip II of Spain, started in 1565, with the arrival of an expedition from Mexico. It additionally noticed the introduction of Christianity.

The Philippines was dominated underneath the Mexico-based Viceroyalty of New Spain, a significant hyperlink between Spain’s American empire and its Asian and South Pacific possessions, till Mexico turned impartial in 1821. After that, the colony was instantly ruled by Spain.

As a result of it was underneath Spanish rule for 333 years the Philippines has many affinities with Latin America, together with its political tradition.

The archipelago turned an American possession after the 1898 Spanish-American Warfare and was underneath U.S. tutelage for an extra 48 years, till granted independence in 1946. This added a veneer of democracy to its political constructions.

The nation was wracked by political turmoil within the final quarter of the twentieth century. After enduring greater than a decade of authoritarian rule underneath President Ferdinand Marcos, the Folks Energy motion in 1986 led a cold rebellion in opposition to his regime.

Marcos had declared martial regulation in 1972 and took management of the nation’s courts, companies, and media. The military and police arrested and tortured 1000’s of dissidents. The years that adopted had been one of many darkest durations within the nation’s historical past, with widespread human rights abuses.

Marcos, his spouse Imelda, and his cronies plundered an estimated $10 billion from public funds whereas hundreds of thousands of individuals lived in excessive poverty. They fled to Hawaii the place Ferdinand Marcos died in exile three years later.

The 1986 rebellion resulted not solely within the ouster of Marcos but in addition within the restoration of democratic authorities to the Philippines. Nonetheless, it remained a shaky superstructure.

What’s previous is prologue, as a result of the nation has once more seen rule by autocratic politicians because the election that introduced Rodrigo Duterte to energy in 2016. He ran on a populist platform and applied a so-called Warfare on Medication that led to 1000’s of extra-legal deaths.

Duterte is going through an Worldwide Felony Court docket investigation into crimes in opposition to humanity. Regardless of this, he retained the help of many within the Philippines, who see him as the person who tackled avenue crime and stood as much as the nation’s wealthy oligarchs.

As a result of time period limits, Duterte retired final yr, and the 2022 presidential election noticed Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, son of the late dictator, win the presidency in a landslide.

He gained 58.3 per cent of the vote within the Could 9 balloting. Leni Robredo, the incumbent vice-president underneath Duterte, got here a really distant second, with 28 per cent.

The younger Marcos beforehand served within the Philippines Home of Representatives and as governor of the household’s stronghold within the province of Ilocos Norte. He unsuccessfully ran for vice-president in 2016.

His 2022 operating mate, Sara Duterte, who’s the brand new vice-president, is the daughter of outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte.

The victorious pair had been backed up by a bunch of highly effective political names together with former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who reportedly brokered their alliance, and the household of former president Joseph Estrada. They grouped collectively to oppose Robredo, who needed to go an anti-dynasty regulation.

In response to a 2019 examine by Manila’s Ateneo Faculty of Authorities, about 80 per cent of governors belonged to “fats dynasties”, that means clans with two or extra members in energy on the similar. Political households additionally held 67 per cent of seats within the Home of Representatives, and 53 per cent of mayoral posts.

By staying away from all of the presidential debates and refusing media interviews, Marcos additionally averted having his household’s report challenged.

“Decide me not by my ancestors, however by my actions,” Marcos mentioned in a press release following his victory. However it’s a blow to these within the Philippines who’ve campaigned for accountability for the abuses of the outdated Marcos period.