Analysis-China no closer to peak coal despite record renewable capacity additions

By David Stanway

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Although China is aiming to roll out report quantities of renewable capability this 12 months as decarbonisation elsewhere stalls, financial challenges imply Beijing is unlikely to sort out rising coal consumption forward of schedule – and should hit a extra painful peak.

Chinese language President Xi Jinping pledged final 12 months to “strictly management” coal and begin reducing its use beginning in 2026 to deliver its climate-warming carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to a peak earlier than 2030. China’s emissions are the best on this planet.

Though these targets are unlikely to vary, environmental teams worry rising power safety issues imply coal use and CO2 emissions may peak at a a lot greater stage than deliberate.

Chinese language power officers have been drawing consideration to the “return to coal” in Europe amid oil and fuel provide disruptions throughout the Ukraine battle, noting China’s shift to scrub power won’t waver. State media have accused Europe of hypocrisy with regards to local weather motion.

“As international power provides tightened final 12 months, and as many international locations in Europe restart coal-fired energy, the event of our nation’s non-fossil gasoline power has continued unabated,” Zhang Jianhua, head of China’s power bureau, mentioned throughout a briefing final month.

Germany reconnected a mothballed coal plant to the grid this month and is anticipated to ramp up coal imports to maintain energy stations operating as Russian fuel provides dwindle.

China expects its consumption to rise for one more three years. Although renewables are anticipated to account for half of latest capability additions over 2021-2025, that might nonetheless enable greater than 250 GW of latest fossil fuel-fired energy, forecasts issued by the China Electrical energy Council this 12 months confirmed.

China additionally has boosted annual coal manufacturing by 490 million tonnes since final 12 months, sufficient to fulfill demand from Germany and Russia mixed, the coal mine security bureau mentioned this month, describing coal as “nonetheless our nation’s most necessary supply of energy”.

The Chinese language energy grid is beneath great pressure within the face of a punishing heatwave.

The nation has continued to develop new coal-fired crops, with building on the second part of the Zheneng Liuheng coal-fired energy station in japanese China’s Zhejiang province starting at first of this month. New coal-fired energy building was at its highest since 2016 final 12 months.

CHINA VS EUROPE

Europe led the best way in lobbying China to make extra formidable fossil fuels cuts, however couldn’t persuade Beijing to part out quite than “part down” coal use throughout local weather talks in Glasgow final 12 months.

China additionally canceled local weather talks with the USA after Nancy Pelosi’s go to to Taiwan.

Sarah Brown, senior power and local weather analyst with Ember, mentioned that European international locations are dedicated to phasing out fossil fuels, however that their hand in local weather diplomacy may weaken if a brief return to coal seems to be lasting.

“If there’s any proof that they don’t seem to be implementing the renewables on the pace that they should… that is once I really feel questions can be requested,” she mentioned.

Zhang of the Nationwide Vitality Administration advised reporters that the share of non-fossil fuels in China’s whole power consumption will rise by one share level a 12 months as much as 2030. It is usually aiming to deliver wind and photo voltaic capability as much as 1,200 GW by 2030, almost double the extent of final 12 months.

There are combined indicators about whether or not China was backtracking on its local weather commitments over power safety issues, mentioned Jorrit Gosens, who researches China’s power insurance policies at Australia Nationwide College.

Coal manufacturing rose 11% within the first half of 2022, he mentioned, however there are not any indicators that consumption will rise; a lot of the manufacturing improve will offset declining imports.

“The power disaster and perceived return to coal in Europe is giving some individuals in China a second of schadenfreude,” mentioned Li Shuo, senior local weather adviser with Greenpeace in Beijing. “If the scenario in Europe isn’t fuelling extra coal consumption right here but, it’s definitely reinforcing Beijing’s pre-existing need to make sure power safety by all means.”

(Reporting by David Stanway; Further reporting by Kate Abnett in Brussels)