College football odds: Arch Manning’s gambling impact on Texas football

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst

When five-star quarterback recruit Arch Manning dedicated to play soccer for the Texas Longhorns in late June, you would virtually hear the celebrations and jubilations from Austin.

Manning’s determination didn’t change the betting odds for the upcoming season – Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia are nonetheless the heavy hitters to win the 2023 CFP Nationwide Championship – however it is going to definitely assist swing the pendulum over the following decade and restore order to a storied Longhorn program.

And whereas Manning received’t take a regular-season snap in burnt orange for a minimum of 14 extra months (2023 class), the recruiting domino impact shall be fascinating to comply with.

As my FOX Sports activities teammate Joel Klatt acknowledged final month, “Steve Sarkisian might have received probably the most coveted prize we might have ever seen in recruiting. It’s not simply because that man selected Texas, it’s that the Manning household selected Texas.”

To interrupt down Manning’s influence from a playing perspective, I rounded up 9 Las Vegas betting buddies to get their ideas on Arch Manning’s dedication to Sarkisian and what it means for the Longhorns’ future. 

These are their tales.

“I’m on trip, mi amigo,” mentioned WynnBET vp of buying and selling Alan Berg.

Welp. Fortunately, Berg’s lieutenant Motoi Pearson was able to rock. 

“Arch has discovered him a pleasant dwelling at Texas,” the WynnBET senior dealer instructed FOX Sports activities. “[Sarkisian] is discovering some proficient offensive items to encompass any quarterback. And any legit quarterback needs to be value a minimum of a landing if he desires to be like Peyton.

“Do I feel he possesses that kind of expertise? Sure. However solely time will inform.”

Pearson’s insinuation that Manning may very well be value seven factors to the betting line someday could be very sturdy. Latest Heisman Trophy winners Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson have been all value round a landing, if no more.

Bryce Younger’s worth is up there, too, however it’s harder to quantify his true worth as a result of Alabama is an offensive juggernaut, and Nick Saban would simply drop one other blue-chip prospect beneath heart if Younger went down.

Both manner, Texas is undoubtedly dreaming about Manning reaching his potential. Extra importantly, you do not simply get Manning once you efficiently persuade a participant of that caliber to commit. You open the door to a brand new slew of offensive weapons that may crave a possibility to play with the following Eli or Peyton.

“[Manning’s signing] speaks to the standard of recruits they’re bringing in and this system being heading in the right direction,” Circa Sports activities sportsbook director Matt Metcalf mentioned. “I’d be shocked if Sarkisian doesn’t have success there, as he’s a terrific offensive man, and it shouldn’t be tough to get the items there. 

“I’ve been ready for the return of Texas to elite standing, and I consider they’ve a shot at getting there once more with Manning.”

Metcalf’s pal John Murray is paying shut consideration to recruiting, too.

“We see the experiences about them crushing it on the recruiting path, so we’re positively holding a detailed eye on it,” the Westgate SuperBook government director mentioned. “However Texas is sort of at all times a classy crew, and so they’ve been letting folks down for years taking part in within the Huge 12. It’s about to get loads harder for them once they transfer to the SEC [in 2025]. We received’t make important changes till they present us one thing on the sphere.”

“Texas is a big-time program that has performed like a Mountain West program for the final a number of years,” US Bookmaking director of operations Robert Walker added. “The Horns have been common in each sense of the phrase, so it’s fascinating to see them land a participant like Arch Manning.

“Nonetheless, I nonetheless really feel like Texas will underachieve in some way. Expectations are at all times excessive in Longhorn Land, and now they’re via the roof. And I’m not the most important Steve Sarkisian fan both as a result of no person leaves Washington or Washington State and doesn’t really feel my wrath.”

“Texas gonna Texas,” former Las Vegas oddsmaker Aaron Kessler cracked.

Different bookmakers stay interested in Manning’s true potential. It’s one factor to look at him tear up seven-on-seven drills and dominate inferior excessive school-level competitors. It’s one other to be taking snaps within the vaunted SEC, which is lining as much as be the Longhorns’ dwelling for almost all of Arch’s profession.

“I don’t have sufficient tape of what he’s accomplished thus far, but when he’s nearly as good as marketed, Texas will definitely be poised to compete from day one towards the SEC heavyweights,” PlayUp USA head of wagering Rex Beyers mentioned. “Manning has already helped a number of different 4 and five-star recruits who might need been on the fence to decide to Texas. Typically that is extra necessary than what Arch himself is value to this system.”

“He was the primary freshman to start out on the varsity at his highschool on the varsity squad in 40 years,” Rampart On line casino sportsbook director Duane Colucci mentioned. “There are tons of YouTube and Twitter movies exhibiting him ball out, however others consider he would solely be a three-star prospect if he weren’t named Manning. Each Eli and Peyton have been profitable, so there’s no purpose Arch received’t be, however he nonetheless has a protracted method to go.”

Then there’s the resident curmudgeon, who at all times jogs my memory that it’s necessary to remain within the second and hold the horse in entrance of the cart. 

“It’s a non-factor till he’s beneath heart for a crew we line,” Circa Sports activities assistant sportsbook supervisor Jeff Davis mentioned. “Till then, it’s about as related as Charlie Woods [Tiger’s 13-year-old son] to win a golf event.” 

Regardless of Davis’ disdain within the current, Manning will quickly be competing with both Hudson Card or Quinn Ewers for QB1 standing on Sarkisian’s depth chart. And we’ll ultimately study Manning’s worth to the betting line and whether or not Texas can stand up and problem faculty soccer’s heavyweights.

Name me a sucker, however I can’t wait to see how Arch Manning’s collegiate profession unfolds, and I’m hoping the Texas Longhorns return to prominence.

A few of my fondest betting recollections are driving the Texas and “Over” practice throughout Vince Younger and the Horns’ historic 13-0 season again in 2005. Texas completed 12-1 towards the unfold (ATS) and 12-1 to the “Over” en path to a nationwide championship sport victory over USC.

It will be a short while earlier than the Longhorns are legit contenders for one more title. Heading into the upcoming season, most American sportsbooks are dealing them at 50-1 or increased behind the likes of Texas A&M, USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan. 

However that does not imply the Longhorn devoted aren’t dreaming of one other confetti social gathering with Arch Manning at heart stage. 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and NESN. He beforehand labored for WGN Radio, NBC Sports activities and VSiN. He’ll in all probability choose towards your favourite crew. Comply with him on Twitter @spshoot.

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