Top MLB picks June 30: Back the Padres early behind Musgrove

Thursday has a light-weight MLB schedule with 14 groups sitting out forward of their weekend sequence, however there are nonetheless some interesting wagers on the board.

The pregame narrative: The San Diego Padres have an excellent likelihood to transform a beginning pitching mismatch into an early lead, the Seattle Mariners ought to roll in opposition to the lowly Oakland Athletics and Oneil Cruz is in a great place to indicate off his uncommon items.

Take a look at our prime MLB picks for June 30.

MLB picks overview

Prime MLB picks

Greatest guess: Padres to steer after 5 innings (+140)

Fading Los Angeles in any context has been harmful all yr, however the discrepancy between Joe Musgrove and Mitch White is not possible to disregard.

Learn extra: World Sequence futures

White has been respectable since becoming a member of the Dodgers’ rotation, posting a 3.98 ERA and 4.36 FIP, however his 91.8 mph common exit velocity in opposition to throughout that span is troubling.

There’s nothing notably spectacular concerning the right-hander’s efficiency.

Against this, Musgrove has been excellent throughout the board.

The one space Musgrove look unimpressive right here is fastball velocity, however that stat is misleading as a result of it consists of his cutters underneath the umbrella of “fastballs.” His 92.7 mph heater isn’t overwhelming, however mixed along with his elite spin fee it’s a lot efficient.

This wager is interesting since you may be assured Musgrove is the one Padres pitcher you’re backing. The correct-hander has gone at the very least six innings in each 2022 begin, and it most likely received’t take a lot assist from his offence for this guess to money in.

San Diego’s lineup needs to be as much as the duty, too, contemplating it has produced 152 runs this month — a complete bested by solely the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.

Learn extra: Odds to win AL MVP

Key stat: White has allowed three or extra earned runs in three of his give begins. Musgrove has allowed two or fewer in 12 of his 13 outings.

Fast picks

Mariners -1.5 (+100): Though we wish to get extra beneficiant odds on a run line, all the pieces is tilting this recreation in Seattle’s favour. Not solely is it a significantly better group than Oakland, however the Mariners additionally acquired prime starter Logan Gilbert on the mound. He’ll be up in opposition to Adrian Martinez, who’s making his second MLB begin after posting a 5.63 ERA at Triple-A this season.

The Mariners outscore their opponents 71-49 with Gilbert on the hill, and that dominance ought to proceed.

Cruz over 0.5 RBI (+180): Cruz hasn’t set the world on hearth because the Pittsburgh Pirates promoted him, however he’s acquired eight RBI in his 9 begins and attracts a beneficial matchup on Thursday. The athletically unique shortstop faces off in opposition to Adrian Houser, who has allowed left-handed batters to slash .296/.369/.464 in opposition to him this season.

We anticipate a giant day from one of many recreation’s prime up-and-coming skills.

Odds as of 11:13 a.m. ET on 06/30/2022.

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