USFL odds Week 7: Best bets, no one can stop the Birmingham Stallions
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities NFL Analyst
Comply with the tendencies for the cash. That is precisely the type of weekend it will likely be within the USFL.
We’ve made cash following the Stallions, fading the Panthers and taking some overs, so I’m heading again down that profitable path for this weekend.
Everyone knows that in betting, the secret is taking dangers. Effectively, I am just about going with what has given me bang for my buck this USFL season, which is sticking with the tendencies and utilizing widespread sense. Hopefully, that reduces the general danger in our wagers this week.
How does the saying go? Hold dancing with those that bought you the place you’re. Proper?
On that observe, let’s dive into my finest bets for Week 7 of the USFL, with all odds via FOX Bet.
Birmingham Stallions (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers (1-5), 2 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Repeat after me. Wager on the Stallions it doesn’t matter what. Wager on the Stallions it doesn’t matter what. Wager …
You get the image.
The Stallions are 6-0 straight up and 6-0 towards the unfold. They’re a wagon rolling down the highway with out something of their approach.
The Stallions rank second within the league in offensive and defensive anticipated factors added (EPA). They’re plus-five in turnover margin which is sweet for second within the league. Birmingham additionally ranks first in sacks and third in essentially the most essential state of affairs for sustained success — third-down offense.
On the opposite facet is the 1-5 Pittsburgh Maulers — a workforce that ranks useless final within the league in offensive manufacturing and effectivity. They’ve solely scored 76 factors in six video games and are final within the league in yards per cross try as properly. Additionally they rank final in yards per rush. Not nice, Bob.
The Maulers are barely higher on protection, rating fifth out of the eight-team league in defensive EPA. They rank center of the pack in yardage and factors allowed. Nevertheless, they proceed to lose and have misplaced three video games by double digits. Search for that pattern to proceed this weekend.
This one can be ugly. Give me the Stallions.
PICK: Stallions (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12.5 points
New Orleans Breakers (4-2) vs. Michigan Panthers (1-5), 9 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1
Please repeat after me. Fade Panthers head coach Jeff Fisher. Fade Panthers head coach Jeff Fisher.
Actually, it is that straightforward.
Fisher’s Panthers workforce is 1-5 towards the unfold this season. And going again to his ultimate weeks because the coach of the Rams, Fish’s report is 2-11-2 towards the unfold.
His workforce is horrible on offense; they verify in at seventh in EPA. Additionally they lead the league in giveaways. It is actually actually laborious to search out something optimistic to say about this workforce’s offense.
They’re barely higher on protection, as they permit simply 17.5 factors per recreation. Additionally they rank third in anticipated factors added.
On the flip facet, the Breakers are first within the league in defensive effectivity and permit solely 16.85 factors per recreation, which is one of the best within the USFL. Translation: The Panthers’ seventh-ranked scoring offense gained’t put up too many factors on this recreation.
The Breakers are third within the league on offense, boast the league’s finest passing offense, and so they have one of the best third-down offense.
So to recap: The Panthers are unhealthy on offense and just a little higher on protection. This isn’t recipe to cook dinner up a win towards this well-rounded Breakers workforce.
This is one other playing nugget for you. Groups favored by 5 or extra factors are 6-3 towards the unfold by way of the primary six weeks of this season.
Merely put, the Breakers win huge!
PICK: Breakers (-5.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5.5 points
New Jersey Generals (5-1) vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (3-3), 12 p.m. ET Saturday, USA
After a weekend the place each recreation went over, the oddsmakers have raised all of the totals this weekend. Whereas Unders ought to make an look once more in Week 7, I do not see it taking place on this recreation.
The Generals proceed to steer the league in offensive effectivity, whereas Tampa Bay ranks fifth. The Generals don’t permit many factors. Nevertheless, their seventh-ranked defensive effectivity is poor.
I’ll say it is a thriller why the Generals do not permit extra factors. They’ve pressured solely 5 turnovers and have a league-low 5 sacks. The workforce doesn‘t permit a ton of yards both, so it’s laborious to clarify why the effectivity numbers differ from the uncooked stats. Both approach, the Over has additionally hit in 4 of their six video games, so I’ll wager on that pattern to proceed.
The Bandits are simply barely higher on protection; their EPA ranks close to the underside, at sixth. Not like the Generals’ uncooked numbers, the Bandits permit factors and yards like their effectivity rating signifies. They’re sixth in defensive factors per recreation, have solely pressured three turnovers and have seven sacks. These are usually not good metrics towards this New Jersey offensive assault.
I see each these groups scoring in bunches, so I just like the Over.
PICK: Over 42.5 points scored by both teams combined
Geoff Schwartz performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. He’s an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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