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P.E.I. likely to continue to see above-average temperatures through December, January

CHARLOTTETOWN, P.E.I. — P.E.I. residents seeking to sit back this winter is likely to be disillusioned. 

Temperatures throughout the province may keep above common all through December and into January, as P.E.I. experiences one other La Nina winter, based on climate projections from the UPEI Local weather Lab in St. Peters Bay. 

“No one is saying it’s going to be colder this winter,” local weather lab director Adam Fenech instructed SaltWire Community on Dec. 6.

“Not us, not Setting Canada and never the almanacs,” mentioned Fenech. 

P.E.I.'s warming climate could have a serious effect on agriculture and wildlife if trends continue the way they have been going in recent years, says UPEI climate lab director Adam French. Contributed
P.E.I.’s warming local weather may have a severe impact on agriculture and wildlife if developments proceed the way in which they’ve been going lately, says UPEI local weather lab director Adam French. Contributed

Climate predictions resembling this are normally made by following historic information to look at developments and patterns. 

These predictions are usually correct about 50 per cent of the time however have turn out to be more and more extra correct lately, Fenech mentioned.  

“Local weather is sort of a carousel. It goes up and down, and there may be variability yearly,” he mentioned. 

This 12 months, it appears to be like as if the pattern P.E.I. has seen for the final two winters will proceed, with much less snowfall and higher-than-normal temperatures. 

“You may have warmer-than regular temperatures and nonetheless obtain a great deal of snow throughout the season. Heat temperatures can translate into extra combine climate occasions, resulting in extra snow.”

-Allister Aalders

On common, the province usually receives about 303 millimetres of precipitation between December and February. The typical temperature is normally about -6 C, however final 12 months, the common was three levels greater than regular, mentioned Fenech. 

This might have a significantly unfavourable impact on winter crops like winter wheat or beats. It additionally provides invasive insect and plant species extra time to root and develop all through the province. 

“I’m nonetheless seeing flies outdoors. Presently of 12 months, it’s unimaginable,” he mentioned. 

A lot of P.E.I.’s migratory birds haven’t flown south but because of the excessive variety of bugs nonetheless current in lots of areas, he mentioned. 

“The birds stick round in the event that they see bugs, however what does that imply for subsequent spring? Possibly there will not be going to be as many bugs.” 

“We’re beginning to actually acknowledge the unfavourable results which are occurring, and it’s not wanting good,” he mentioned. “Local weather change appears to be wreaking havoc.”  

Most of Canada is projected to see a colder winter, with the one exception being the Maritimes. 

A diagram provided by the UPEI Climate Lab shows the different weather predictions made by climate organizations for the 2022-2023 winter season. Contributed
A diagram supplied by the UPEI Local weather Lab exhibits the completely different climate predictions made by local weather organizations for the 2022-2023 winter season. Contributed

SaltWire Community’s climate specialist Allister Aalders mentioned throughout an interview on Dec. 7 there are a number of causes for this, together with that ocean temperatures within the North Atlantic proceed to be properly above common.

“With sea floor temperatures hotter than regular, that normally interprets to warmer-than-normal land-based temperatures,” mentioned Aalders.  

That is brought on by wind passing over heat floor water within the gulf, then passing by the province, making it tough for any storm programs carrying snow to kind.  

There may be additionally at the moment a blocking bridge of excessive stress close to Greenland, which usually holds stormier programs out. 

The province will nonetheless expertise chilly snaps and heavy snowfalls all through the winter, simply with much less frequency than in earlier years. 

Dec. 14, 2021--Photo of Saltwire Weather Specialist Allister Aalders. - Eric Wynne
Dec. 14, 2021–Photograph of Saltwire Climate Specialist Allister Aalders. – Eric Wynne

“You may have warmer-than regular temperatures and nonetheless obtain a great deal of snow throughout the season. Heat temperatures can translate into extra combine climate occasions, resulting in extra snow,” mentioned Aalders. 

That mentioned, he added these hotter winters will probably turn out to be extra frequent within the years to come back. 

“As our local weather continues to alter, we’ll proceed to see hotter temperatures, together with throughout the winter months, particularly with the pattern that our sea temperatures (is) going,” he mentioned. 

“It’s the right components for robust storms to develop, so actually the warming of the Atlantic is a pattern that appears to be the results of local weather change.” 

Rafe Wright is a Native Journalism Initiative reporter, a place coated by the federal authorities. He writes about local weather change points for the SaltWire Community in Prince Edward Island and may be reached by e mail at [email protected] and adopted on Twitter @wright542. 

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