KINSELLA: Election campaigns matter but so do issues

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Campaigns matter? Properly, positive. After all.

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However so do points.

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The primary truism is alleged so usually, it’s a cliché. All of us can consider elections whereby what was presupposed to occur, didn’t. Clinton versus Trump in 2016. Trudeau versus Harper in 2015. In these contests, the marketing campaign mattered — quite a bit.

Clinton underperformed and misplaced a positive factor. Trudeau overperformed — and introduced his Liberal Social gathering from third place to first, and defeated a Conservative majority authorities within the course of.

So, campaigns matter. However so do points, this 12 months.

Proof isn’t exhausting to search out. Take a gander at what’s taking place down south, with the U.S. midterms quick approaching. Each pundit and pollster had lengthy predicted that President Joe Biden was heading in direction of an electoral pounding of Biblical proportions.

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Voters have been mad at Biden for inflation. They have been mad concerning the value of a gallon of gasoline. They have been mad about how he didn’t appear to have a plan for the financial system or the longer term.

Republicans have been giddy, and completely sure they’d retake the Senate and the U.S. Home of Representatives. However they’re not so sure anymore — and it’s received Republicans scrambling, and Democrats feeling much more optimistic.

The rationale? Points. As a result of, in 2022, points matter.

For instance: public opinion isn’t unanimous on abortion and homosexual rights. Nevertheless it’s largely settled. In America — as in Canada — the bulk help reproductive rights for girls, and equal therapy for LGBTQ individuals. They don’t need these divisive points revisited.

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However Republicans “can’t appear to get out of their very own means,” says Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat up for re-election within the midterms. And he’s proper. Final week, his fellow senator — North Carolina’s Lindsay Graham, a Trump confidante — solemnly promised to enact a nationwide ban on abortion.

By stubbornly opposing abortion — in some instances, not even for rape and incest — the GOP is wildly out of step with prevailing opinion within the U.S.

The identical holds true on homosexual rights. So, final week, Senate Republicans refused to decide to a invoice that might defend homosexual marriages. The vote has now been delayed till after the midterms – thereby giving Biden’s Democrats loads of alternative to depict campaigning Republicans as troglodytes.

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Immigration, too, shouldn’t be a difficulty in which there’s unanimity — removed from it. So, when Florida’s Ron De Santis lately dumped a planeload of penniless migrants on Martha’s Winery, at taxpayer expense, hardline Republicans beloved it.

However, because the New York Instances reported: “Whereas polls present that the majority Republicans draw a tough line on immigration, additionally they discover that almost all of Individuals regard immigration as a optimistic and are notably sympathetic to refugees, suggesting that the GOP stunt — which stranded susceptible individuals in a spot unprepared for his or her arrival — might additionally immediate outrage amongst voters who regard it as merciless.”

There are classes for Canadian politicians and political events, right here. And a few are paying shut consideration.

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When the U.S. Supreme Courts conservative majority signaled it could toss out the pro-abortion Roe v. Wade precedent, Liberal Chief Justin Trudeau speedily moved to make the most of the problem, promising by no means to let such a factor occur right here. In the meantime, Conservative Chief Pierre Poilievre executed a whiplash-inducing flip-flop, and renounced his earlier opposition to abortion — however mentioned he’d allow his caucus to deliver ahead anti-abortion legal guidelines.

The 2 main events primarily agree on homosexual rights and immigration. Their variations are minimal.

However on different huge points, huge variations stay. Liberals are usually anti-gun, Conservatives pro-gun. Grits primarily favour vaccine mandates and public well being measures whereas Tories primarily don’t. And Liberals stay resolutely against the so-called freedom convoy occupations whereas Conservatives, and Poilievre specifically, are defiantly supportive of the convoy sorts.

On all of these points, Liberals are extra in sync with public opinion than the Conservatives.

Campaigns matter. And the approaching marketing campaign goes to be nasty, and hard-fought. Nevertheless it gained’t simply be about personalities.

It’s going to be about points, too.

As a result of points matter.

— Kinsella volunteers for the Biden Democrats within the coming mid-term elections

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