Factbox-Europe’s alternatives if Russia shuts off gas supply

By Nina Chestney

LONDON – The Nord Stream 1 pipeline that transports Russian fuel to Germany will endure additional upkeep, Gazprom stated on Friday after scrapping a Saturday deadline to renew flows, deepening Europe’s difficulties in securing gasoline.

Gazprom was already present process upkeep from Aug. 31-Sept. 2, prompting considerations about provide to Europe forward of the onset of winter if the outage was prolonged.

Russia slashed flows via the pipeline to 40% of capability in June and to twenty% in July.

It has additionally reduce off provide to a number of European international locations reminiscent of Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland, and lowered flows by way of different pipelines since launching what Moscow calls its “particular navy operation” in Ukraine.

The next outlines Europe’s choices.

WHAT ARE THE MAIN ROUTES FOR RUSSIAN GAS TO EUROPE?

Russia sometimes provides about 40% of Europe’s pure fuel, largely by pipeline. Deliveries final yr have been round 155 billion cubic metres (bcm).

Through Ukraine the fuel goes primarily to Austria, Italy, Slovakia and different east European states. Ukraine has closed the Sokhranovka transit pipeline that runs via Russian-occupied territory within the east of the nation.

European international locations have been in search of to search out different provide, together with some reduce off by Russia after rejecting a requirement they pay in roubles.

Others, together with Germany, nonetheless want Russian fuel and are attempting to refill fuel storage forward of winter.

Different routes to Europe that don’t go by way of Ukraine embrace the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany.

The Yamal-Europe pipeline has a 33 billion cubic metre (bcm) capability, round a sixth of Russian fuel exports to Europe. Flows have been reversed to circulate eastward between Poland and Germany because the begin of this yr.

Moscow has positioned sanctions on the proprietor of the Polish a part of the Yamal-Europe pipeline. Nonetheless, Poland can handle with out reverse fuel circulate on the Yamal pipeline, its local weather minister has stated.

On Nord Stream 1, the Kremlin has blamed Western sanctions for a delay within the return of kit despatched for upkeep to Canada.

EUROPE’S ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIERS?

Some international locations have different provide choices and Europe’s fuel community is linked up so provides will be shared, though the worldwide fuel market was tight even earlier than the Ukraine disaster.

Germany, Europe’s greatest client of Russian fuel, which has halted certification of the brand new Nord Stream 2 fuel pipeline from Russia due to the Ukraine battle, might import from Britain, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands by way of pipelines.

Norway, Europe’s second greatest fuel provider behind Russia, has been elevating manufacturing to assist the European Union in direction of its goal of ending reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

Britain’s Centrica has signed a cope with Norway’s Equinor for additional provide for the subsequent three winters. Britain doesn’t depend on Russian fuel and can even export to Europe by way of pipelines.

Southern Europe can obtain Azeri fuel by way of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline to Italy and the Trans-Anatolian Pure Fuel Pipeline (TANAP) via Turkey.

The USA has stated it may provide 15 bcm of liquefied pure fuel (LNG) to the European Union this yr.

However U.S. LNG vegetation are producing at full capability and a blast at a serious LNG export terminal in Texas will preserve it idle till late November.

Europe’s LNG terminals even have restricted capability for additional imports, though some international locations say they’re in search of methods to develop imports and storage.

Germany is amongst those that wish to construct new LNG terminals. It plans to construct two in simply two years.

Poland, which depends on Russia for about 50% of its fuel consumption or round 10 bcm, has stated it may supply fuel by way of two hyperlinks with Germany. A brand new pipeline permitting as much as 10 bcm of fuel per yr to circulate between Poland and Norway might be opened in October. A brand new fuel hyperlink between Poland and Slovakia was additionally commissioned final week.

Spain desires to revive a mission to construct a 3rd fuel connection via the Pyrennes mountains however France has stated new LNG terminals, which will be made to drift, could be a faster and cheaper choice than a brand new pipeline.

OTHER OPTIONS TO COPE WITH A GAS SUPPLY CRUNCH?

A number of nations can search to fill any hole in vitality provides by turning to electrical energy imports by way of interconnectors from their neighbours or by boosting energy era from nuclear, renewables, hydropower or coal.

Nuclear availability is falling in Belgium, Britain, France and Germany with vegetation going through outages as they age, are decommissioned or phased out. Hydro ranges have been falling this summer season resulting from low rainfall and a heatwave.

Europe has been attempting to shift from coal to satisfy local weather targets however some vegetation have been switched again on since mid-2021 due to surging fuel costs.

Vitality ministers agreed that every one EU international locations ought to voluntarily reduce fuel use by 15% from August to March, in contrast with their common annual use throughout 2017-2021 and launched EU-wide targets for refilling fuel storage.

Germany has triggered stage two of its three-stage emergency fuel plan and urged companies and shoppers to save lots of fuel to keep away from pressured rationing.

The Dutch vitality minister has stated its Groningen subject could possibly be referred to as upon to assist neighbouring international locations within the occasion of an entire cut-off in Russian provide however ramping up manufacturing would danger inflicting earthquakes.

(Reporting by Nina Chestney; Enhancing by Jason Neely and Alexander Smith)